No one could have imagined that one of the largest climate-related population evacuations could happen in the U.S. But on August 29, 2005, Hurricane Katrina made landfall near the city of New Orleans, and over the next several months hundreds of thousands of people from New Orleans and surrounding areas in Mississippi and Alabama left their homes, often with nothing to return to except rubble. Within a few weeks the New Orleans, Louisiana Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) lost nearly 30% of its population—over 376,000 people, according to 2006 U.S. Census Bureau Special Population Estimates for Impacted Counties in the Gulf Coast Area. Nearly 14% of the population of the Gulfport-Biloxi market left the area in addition to over 4% of the residents of Lake Charles, Louisiana. Some with friends or relatives close by only moved a short distance, while others made longer journeys, leaving their homes for an indefinite period toward cities across the country. Over the course of September, October, November, and December of 2005, the city of Houston, Texas gained over 230,000 new residents.

With recent earthquakes in China, the cyclone in Myanmar, and a combination of tornadoes and floods ripping across the U.S. Midwest, natural disasters have become an increasingly relevant presence in our daily lives. Individuals directly affected by these disasters require particular care and sensitivity in attempts to measure the detrimental impact of these events. Measurement of these affected areas is critically important so that businesses and communities can begin the rebuilding process and get back to some semblance of normalcy.

What if? – A question of “when”, not “if”
Had an equivalently destructive earthquake impacted Los Angeles, over 3.8 million individuals would have been impacted, of which 10% are over the age of 65 and 7.5% are under the age of five. Had a category 3 hurricane targeted New York instead of New Orleans, over 8.2 million would have been impacted of which almost 20% live below the poverty line.

With no intention of being alarmist, it is important to remember that natural disasters are not temporally isolated events—they are ongoing conditions of life on Earth. The recent bout of natural disasters across the globe serves as an ominous reminder that Mother Nature is a force to be reckoned with and can strike anytime, anywhere.

Picking up the pieces
Hurricane Katrina catalyzed one of the largest migrations of individuals in U.S. history leaving only speculation toward the demographic future of the culturally and socially rich area in its wake. Even now, almost three years after those fateful days the extent of these changes is only marginally understood, leaving community and business leaders striving to rebuild with more questions than answers.

While there is no single method to addressing the myriad information needs required to mediate recovery of impacted consumers and businesses in the wake of a large-scale disaster, there are multiplicative approaches that can be used to fully understand the circumstances surrounding a disaster. Nielsen provides a unique advantage for understanding the who, what, where, when and why of consumer behavior to provide the business intelligence needed to aid the rebuilding process.

The diaspora
The displacement of individuals and families from the Gulf Coast area emptied one of the most populous U.S. cities virtually overnight. Government, humanitarian agencies, and businesses seeking to revitalize the damaged Gulf Coast needed to know where the former residences had gone, and how many had returned. Initial estimates provided insight toward the population within the New Orleans area, but ignored the impact of displaced individuals on the surrounding area. This proved to be an unfortunate oversight, as many adversely affected areas within the Louisiana federally-declared disaster site experienced positive, rather than negative, population shifts. Evacuees from the immediate New Orleans MSA fled to nearby county areas and metropolitan centers such as Houston.

In fact, U.S. Census data reported that by July of 2006, neighboring St. Bernard parish had lost nearly 80% of its population, while Orleans parish containing the heart of the city lost nearly 54% when compared with July 2005 figures. All areas in the metropolitan area have since begun to gain back population, though the amount of recovery is as low as 50% of pre-impact population levels for many areas.

Nielsen Claritas was the first to create a comprehensive estimate of the population impact from Hurricane Katrina. Rather than focusing only upon the city of New Orleans, the estimates utilized information from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Red Cross, United States Postal Service delivery counts, and several other timely sources of information to gauge population effects in both impacted areas and those receiving large numbers of evacuees.

Seismic demographic shifts shape the post-normal
Dramatic changes to the age and sex structure of individuals in the heaviest impacted areas delivered radical changes—results of which, when deconstructed, are not simple dichotomies of “white vs. black” or “poor vs. rich”, but rather complex psychological and sociological relationships.

Prior to impact, blacks accounted for nearly 38% of the population of the New Orleans MSA, and over 60% of the population in Orleans parish. This diversity was particularly prevalent in child populations, where younger black populations were at almost equivalent levels to younger white populations.

Post-impact unveils a universal decline in all age cohorts—most pronounced being black populations, particularly the aforementioned younger cohorts. Many proportionately black neighborhoods were hit particularly hard, and the market ended up losing a much higher share of its black population than of any other population group. Those who didn’t move or who moved within the MSA were 21.5% black, while those who moved outside the MSA were nearly 60% black.

The white population now accounts for a larger proportion of populations in the area. However, being black did not account for as much variance in the population as having a household structure that is better educated and has children. The fact that a scant majority of blacks were renters (50.1%), while over 80% of whites were home owners (and the areas worst hit by the storm were black renter-occupied neighborhoods), many had no place to return to. In other words, while black populations by virtue of ecological or economic vulnerability had decreased (or in some case no) capacity to return to their pre-Katrina residence, the evacuee population in aggregate was much more heterogeneous.

Today, New Orleans is a changed city, still well scarred by Katrina with (perhaps permanent) shifts in the demographic structure. The population is older than it was, with declines in 35-44 year olds and gains in those over 55, particularly 55-64. The city is also less diverse than before, with the incidence of non-Hispanic whites increasing by 11%. Black populations, who had made up well over a third of the population of the MSA, have fallen in size to a bit more than a quarter, most leaving the devastation of Orleans parish. However, Hispanic populations have also edged up, reflecting an influx of migratory workers aiding in the rebuilding process.

Household incomes have increased, partly from the growth in wages, but mostly from the loss of many of the lower-income households who packed up and left in the aftermath of the storm. Home owners are also a larger share now, as fair-market rental prices reach new highs due to the diminished rental housing stock.

The retail landscape evolves
The retail landscape is just as different today as is the demography of the residents of the city. Overall the store count among the core channels (grocery, drug, mass, club, and convenience) is down by over 20% from pre-Katrina levels. The biggest drops were in the smaller formats:

• Superettes are down over 45%
• Gas-only convenience stores are down over 51%
• Limited assortment supermarkets are down over 64%
• Supercenters and club stores have been the biggest winners, both growing their shares of market ACV by strong margins

Through the rebuilding process, marketers need to be keenly aware of the demographic and economic shifts that impact behavioral changes, shopping outlet differences and product preferences.

Unusual circumstances require innovative approaches
So what do these efforts mean for community leaders and businesses engaged in revitalizing distressed populations? Using timely, relevant, and insightful research intelligence to bolster comprehension of circumstances surrounding a disaster can produce highly relevant business acumen during times of intense distress.

Important “lessons learned” include:

• Identify areas most in need of aid — Insights to changes in the consumer base will prove invaluable to local authorities and recovery specialists.
• Provide much needed supplies — Packaged goods producers can shine with supplies of water, food, creature comforts, temporary sheltering or camping gear, building materials, and tools.
• Listen and understand — Post-disaster areas are often bursting with the “street-corner psychology” phenomenon, by listening and treating individuals with humanity, the responsiveness of affected populations can greatly improve.
• Facilitate the recovery of normalcy — Access to familiar brands can at the very least help affected populations feel more normal following a life-altering event.
• Understand the demographic impact — Early access to information regarding population characteristic changes can enable a strategic shift in the respective markets for effective consumer targeting.
• Assess short-term residential needs — Marketers should be aware of unique and often temporary household structures in affected and outlying areas when developing campaigns related to servicing evacuee populations.

Information in this article was compiled using the following sources:

Congressional Research Service. 2005. Domestic Social Policy Division, Congressional Cartography
Program. Hurricane Katrina: Social-Demographic Characteristics of Impacted Areas.
Washington , DC : The Library of Congress.

Brookings Institution. 2005. “Hurricane Katrina Timeline” Metropolitan Policy Program, The Brookings Institution. Washington, DC.

Liu, Amy and Allison Plyer. 2007. “The New Orleans Index Second Anniversary Special Edition: A Review of Key Indicators of Recovery Two Years After Katrina” The Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program and The Greater New Orleans Community Data Center. Retrieved from www.gnocdc.org.

U.S. Census Bureau, 2006. “Special Population Estimates for Impacted Counties in the Gulf Coast Area”

U.S. Census Bureau, Populations Division. Annual Population Estimates, Vintage 2006 & 2007