London, 16 January 2015. The volume of items purchased from the UK’s leading supermarkets increased year-on-year for the first time since mid-July 2013, according to the latest data from global information and insights company Nielsen.
Sales volume increased +0.6%¹ during the four weeks ending 3 January 2015 versus the same period a year ago – the first four-week year-on-year increase in volume since 20 July 2013.
“Much has been made of people spending less in supermarkets but little attention is paid to how much they’re buying,” says Mike Watkins, Nielsen’s UK head of retailer and business insight. “The fact they’re starting to buy more – driven by confectionery, snacks, drinks, fruit and veg, and delicatessen – is a bright start to 2015 for the major supermarkets.”
“The relative improvement in the fortunes of the major supermarkets in December was helped by shoppers visiting in the few days before Christmas Day which tempered some of the momentum of the discounters.”
Sales value during the four week period was flat¹ versus the same period a year ago.
Watkins notes: “A combination of retailer price cuts and other deflationary factors, such as weaker commodity prices and falling oil prices, meant further savings for shoppers in December, and falling sales growths for the retailers, particularly in grocery (-2%), meat/fish/poultry (-2%) and fruit & veg (-4%).”
Morrisons was the only one of the big four to experience higher sales (+0.4%) over the four week period compared to the year before. Asda experienced the biggest decline of the four (-2.4%).
Over the 12-week period ending 3 January 2015, Waitrose (+7.7%) and Marks & Spencer (+1.3%) were the only supermarkets alongside the discounters (Aldi, +20.2%; Lidl, +13.9%) to see a year-on-year increase in sales.
In the four weeks ending 3 January 2015, the leading supermarkets spent 13%² more on TV and press advertising (£49.7 million) than the same period a year ago. Tesco spent the most in the period: £8.4 million, 29% more than last year. Following Tesco were Asda (£7.4 million) and Aldi (£7.0 million). Lidl increased spend the most – up 59% to £5.0 million.
“Advertising continued to be dominated by messages around price comparisons, indicating how high the stakes had become in the Christmas price war,” says Watkins. “Alongside this, promotional spend on offers also remained high at 34% of sales, with most of the top four supermarkets close to 37%, which encouraged shoppers to spend on seasonal food and drink.”
Looking ahead Watkins notes: “Despite the continued impact of deflation, we anticipate a return to positive (+1%) sales value growth in 2015 and volumes continuing to slowly improve throughout the year. However, there will be no let up to the intense competition between the supermarkets and the discounters.”
The figures in the table are based on 12 weeks sales through to 3 January 2015 compared with the same 12 week period ending in 2014.
Source: Nielsen Total Till, Nielsen Homescan. Includes an annual universe update at October 2014.
All figures are from Nielsen Homescan Total Till unless otherwise stated
¹Source: Nielsen Scantrack Grocery Multiples
²Source: Nielsen Ad Dynamix
The Nielsen continuous 14,500 GB household panel is geo-demographically balanced and designed to measure household purchasing through a wide range of channels. It includes all food and drink and non-food spend (e.g. household, personal care, clothing, electrical, cards and stationery, toys, music, general merchandise, etc.) It represents the total amount paid (after all coupons and vouchers), found on the till receipt.
The Nielsen scanning service that measures total store sales every week by SKU for 15,000 shops across all food and drink trade channels in GB. This uses the actual EPOS data from retailers, thus, Scantrack is the most robust and reliable measure of FMCG sales and is integrated with Homescan for the key indicators of retailer and category performance. The total market measured is £145bn per annum. ‘Grocery Multiples’ is a defined sub-set of the major supermarkets that also includes all food sales from Marks and Spencer (but excludes Aldi and Lidl). The Grocery Multiples account for over £121bn of all GB food, drink and supermarket general merchandise sales.
Nielsen Holdings N.V. (NYSE: NLSN) is a global information and measurement company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence and mobile measurement. Nielsen has a presence in approximately 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA and Diemen, the Netherlands. For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.
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