More than half (55%) of respondents around the world believed they were in recession in the fourth quarter of 2015, a modest increase from the start of that year (53%)—and a level that often exceeds official economic definitions. Recessionary sentiment was strongest and above 90% in Venezuela (96%), Ukraine (95%), Brazil (93%) and South Korea (91%). Sentiment was lowest and below 40% in China (29%), Czech Republic (33%), Denmark (34%), New Zealand (37%) and Germany (38%).
Recessionary sentiment improved most in Latvia (59%, -11pp), Estonia (46%, -10pp), Italy (80%, -9pp) and the U.S. (47%, -8pp) from the third quarter. Conversely, fourth-quarter recessionary sentiment worsened most in Sweden (62%, +13pp), Singapore (40%, +10pp), United Arab Emirates (53%, +10pp) and Norway (63%, +10pp).
In the U.S., the percentage who believed they were in recession fell under 50% for the first time since 2008, when Nielsen began tracking recessionary sentiment. "The U.S. economy is on a solid footing, and the path to recovery is holding steady," said Louise Keely, senior vice president, Nielsen, and president, The Demand Institute. "American consumers have experienced continued job creation and lower gas prices, along with some wage growth. So it is remarkable that, while the share of consumers who believe the U.S. economy is in recession has fallen steadily, it is still as high as it is. This ‘overestimation’ on the part of consumers is a global phenomenon and reflects the large number of consumers who continue to feel uncertain about their economies overall.”
India's recessionary sentiment, on the other hand, is notably high (50%) given their optimistic confidence index score of 131. "Indian consumers are confident, but they are not without their worries, and global companies need to serve them with the same degree of smart insight and sophistication as they do consumers in developed markets," said Keely. "Consumption represents nearly 60% of GDP in the country, so consumers are an important economic driver for India. As both the population and its spending power grow, the Indian market opportunity will be increasingly important to global companies."
The ups-and-downs seen at the country level reflect a larger picture of recessionary sentiment within the regions measured in the survey. Since the beginning of 2015, increased recessionary sentiment was seen in Asia-Pacific, Latin America and Africa/Middle East, while slight improvements were seen in North America and Europe.
Other findings from the fourth-quarter Consumer Confidence Index include:
For more detail and insight, download Nielsen’s fourth-quarter 2015 Global Consumer Confidence Report.
For a historical look at global consumer confidence by region, country and time period, explore the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Trend Tracker.
The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions was conducted Nov. 2–25, 2015 and polled more than 30,000 online consumers in 61 countries throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa and North America. The sample includes Internet users who agreed to participate in this survey and has quotas based on age and sex for each country. It is weighted to be representative of Internet consumers by country. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated. However, a probability sample of equivalent size would have a margin of error of ±0.6% at the global level. This Nielsen survey is based only on the behavior of respondents with online access. Internet penetration rates vary by country. Nielsen uses a minimum reporting standard of 60% Internet penetration or an online population of 10 million for survey inclusion. The China Consumer Confidence Index is compiled from a separate mixed methodology survey among 3,500 respondents in China. The sub-Saharan African countries in this study are compiled from a separate mobile methodology survey among 1,600 respondents in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria. The Nielsen Global Survey, which includes the Global Consumer Confidence Index, was established in 2005.