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INDONESIAN CONSUMERS ARE STILL OPTIMISTIC IN THE THIRD QUARTER 2018
Jakarta, 10 December 2018 – The Conference Board® GlobalConsumer Confidence ™ Survey, in collaboration with Nielsen, recently released the results of its study showing that despite no longer being in the top three, Indonesian consumers’ level of optimism is still among the highest globally. Indonesia Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in Q3 2018 is in a stable position with 126 percentage points (pp).
The top three countries with the most optimistic consumers globally are India (130), Vietnam (129) and Malaysia (127. The three markets experience quite significant increase compared to the previous quarter, whereby in Q2 2018 India’s index was 124, Vietnam 120 and Malaysia 117pp. With the index of 126, Indonesia follows in 4th position with Philippines and Pakistan. Compared with Q2 2018, Indonesia and the Philippines very slightly decrease from 127, while Pakistan increase significantly from 115 pp.
CCI is influenced by three indicators, namely optimism of (1) Local Job Prospects, (2) Personal Finance, and (3) Spending Intentions; all in the next 12 months. For Indonesia, optimism for Local Job Prospects increased from 71% in the second quarter of 2018 to 73% in Q3 2018.
Meanwhile, 79% of consumers had a positive perception of their State of Personal Finances, down from 82% in the second quarter 2018. More than half (57%) consumers say that the next 12 months is A Good Time for Them to Shop for The Things They Want and Need. This last indicator declined from 63% in the second quarter of 2018.
Globally, the Consumer Confidence Index was stable at 106 points in the third quarter of 2018. The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence ™ Survey, in collaboration with Nielsen, also revealed that the 10 most optimistic countries in the third quarter of 2018 were India (130), Vietnam (129), and Malaysia (127), Indonesia (126), Pakistan respectively. (126), Denmark (122), China (112), Thailand (112), Netherlands (112), United Arab Emirates (111).
On the other hand, Indonesian online consumers’ recessionary sentiment increased quite significantly, whereby in Q3, 61% of consumers agree that the country is in an economic recession at the moment. This number increased 5% compared with Q2 2018. Meanwhile, only 39% of consumers agree that the country is not in an economic recession at the moment, down 5% compared with the previous quarter with 44%.
Saving and investment remain the main choices for consumers to use their spare cash after covering their essential living expenses. In the third quarter of 2018, 63% of consumers chose to allocate their spare cash by Putting into Savings, 32 percent chose to use it for Holidays/Vacation, and 29 percent chose to invest in shares of stocks or mutual funds.
In Q3 2018, The Economy also remains the biggest concern for 32% of Indonesian consumers. Consumers’ concern of Political Stability increased to 22% compared with 20 percent in the previous quarter. 18 percent consumers stated their concern on Work/Life Balance, and 15% on Health. In the fifth position, the concerns of Indonesian consumers are Parent’s Welfare and Happiness, which fell from the previous quarter (15%) to 13% in the Q3 2018.
“The continuous increase of consumers’ recessionary sentiment since the last quarter of 2017 needs to be put into attention, both by the government or by the industry players. There has to be harder efforts by the government to avoid consumers thinking that the country is currently in an economic recession.” said Agus Nurudin, Managing Director, Nielsen Indonesia. “One of the efforts is to maintain the political stability ahead of the election next year. We cannot deny the fact that political stability will affect the economic situation. Therefore, if the political ‘temperature’ can be maintained even can become ‘colder’, consumers will be more confident and the sentiment regarding economic recession will decline."
Indonesian consumers’ sentiment regarding the economic recession has continued to increase since the fourth quarter of 2017. In that quarter, 53% thought that the country is in an economic recession. The percentage increased to 55% in Q1 2018, 56% in Q2 2018, and increased significantly to 61% in Q3 2018.
ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD® GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen. It was conducted in August 2018 and polled more than 32,000 online consumers in 64 countries throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa and North America. The sample includes internet users who agreed to participate in this survey and has quotas based on age and sex for each country. It is weighted to be representative of internet consumers by country. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated. However, a probability sample of equivalent size would have a margin of error of ±0.6% at the global level. This survey is based only on the behavior of respondents with online access. Internet penetration rates vary by country.
The Conference Board uses a minimum reporting standard of 60% internet penetration or an online population of 10 million for survey inclusion. The Nielsen China Consumer Confidence Index is sourced from a separate survey conducted by Nielsen China, which is based on a mixed methodology survey of more than 3,000 respondents in China. The Global Consumer Confidence Survey was established in 2005.
ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: to provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. Winner of the Consensus Economics 2016 Forecast Accuracy Award (U.S.), The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity, holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the USA. Visit http://www.conferenceboard.org
Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global measurement and data analytics company that provides the most complete and trusted view available of consumers and markets worldwide. Our approach marries proprietary Nielsen data with other data sources to help clients around the world understand what’s happening now, what’s happening next, and how to best act on this knowledge. For more than 90 years Nielsen has provided data and analytics based on scientific rigor and innovation, continually developing new ways to answer the most important questions facing the media, advertising, retail and fast-moving consumer goods industries. An S&P 500 company, Nielsen has operations in over 100 countries, covering more than 90% of the world’s population. For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.
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