Globally Indians most optimistic when it comes to perceptions of whether it’s a good or bad time to buy the things they want and need over the next one year
Mumbai – August 2, 2016 – The Consumer Confidence Index score for India decreased by six index points to 128 in the second quarter of 2016, from a high of 134 last quarter (Q1 2016). This puts India in second place on the global index, after being in the lead for eight quarters. Globally, Philippines is the most optimistic country this quarter, with an index of 132.
Global consumer confidence held steady in the second quarter of 2016 at 98, an index score that was flat from the first quarter. North America was the only region to sustain growth momentum in the second quarter with a three-point confidence increase to 111. In Asia-Pacific, confidence was relatively stable at 107, a one-point decrease from the first quarter. Japan’s confidence was of particular significance since it decreased four points to 69.It was Japan’s fourth consecutive quarter of declining scores, amid weak consumption and wage growth.
Established in 2005, the Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index is fielded quarterly in 63 countries to measure the perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances, immediate spending intentions and related economic issues of real consumers around the world. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.
“The dip in index hints at caution for consumers in India, with the hardening of fuel prices, rising inflation and concerns around the monsoon. There is a tilt towards savings, versus discretionary spending, a softening in volume growth of the consumer goods baskets compared to last quarter and muted auto sales”, said Prasun Basu, President - South Asia, Nielsen. “However, the Indian consumer has remained quite optimistic over the last few quarters, and this may be just a temporary dip.”
JOB PROSPECTS AND PERSONAL FINANCES
78% of urban Indian respondents indicate optimism over job prospects as well as sentiment on the state of personal finances. These two key confidence indicators have dipped from the last quarter, by five (83% in Q1 2016) and eight percentage points (85% in Q1 2016) respectively. Spending intentions are at similar levels from last quarter at 65%.
MUTED RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT
Although overall consumer sentiment has decreased, less than half of respondents (49%) feel that the country is in an economic recession – four percentage points from last quarter. Nearly three in five (59%) have polled that the country will be out of the recession in the next twelve months.
Job security and state of the economy continue to be the top two concerns for Indians. This quarter work/life balance and global warming have also come in as biggest concerns, followed by parent’s welfare and happiness, and health.
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING & SAVINGS
India continues to lead globally when it comes to on spending intentions. 65% urban Indians indicate it’s a good time to buy things they want and need over the next 12 months.
67% respondents indicated that they will put in extra cash after covering essential living expenses in savings. More than half of the respondents said they will spend on vacations (52%), followed by new technology products (50%).
Over four in five respondents (82%) have indicated they have changed their spending to save on household expenses. Top avenues for saving are on gas and electricity (48%), spending less on new clothes (47%). 31% polled have said they will look for better deals when it comes to home loans, insurance, credit cards – up 8 percentage points from last quarter (23% in Q1 2016). There is also an increase in intentions of changing major household items from 27% in the first quarter to 31% this quarter.
ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY
The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions was conducted May 9–27, 2016, and polled more than 30,000 online consumers in 63 countries throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa and North America. The sample includes Internet users who agreed to participate in this survey and has quotas based on age and sex for each country. It is weighted to be representative of Internet consumers by country. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated. However, a probability sample of equivalent size would have a margin of error of ±0.6% at the global level. This Nielsen survey is based only on the behaviour of respondents with online access. Internet penetration rates vary by country. Nielsen uses a minimum reporting standard of 60% Internet penetration or an online population of 10 million for survey inclusion. The China Consumer Confidence Index is compiled from a separate mixed methodology survey among 3,500 respondents in China. The sub-Saharan African countries in this study are compiled from a separate mobile methodology survey among 1,600 respondents in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria. The Nielsen Global Survey, which includes the Global Consumer Confidence Index, was established in 2005.
Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global performance management company that provides a comprehensive understanding of what consumers Watch and Buy. Nielsen’s Watch segment provides media and advertising clients with Total Audience measurement services across all devices where content—video, audio and text—is consumed. The Buy segment offers consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retailers the industry's only global view of retail performance measurement. By integrating information from its Watch and Buy segments and other data sources, Nielsen provides its clients with both world-class measurement as well as analytics that help improve performance. Nielsen, an S&P 500 company, has operations in over 100 countries that cover more than 90% of the world's population. For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.
Tarini Mathur Kaul, [email protected], +91 124 6629629