India one of the world’s top ten economies that posted optimistic scores this quarter
Mumbai – November 1, 2016 – The Consumer Confidence Index score for India in Q3 2016 has climbed five points to 133 from 128 in the previous quarter to reclaim the top spot on the global index. This is a bounce back to the same levels of optimism that we saw in Q1 2016 (134). Following India are Philippines and Indonesia with scores of 132 and 122 respectively.
"The latest score for India is the highest historically for the quarter, and reiterates renewed optimism levels as well. This is now back to first quarter highs and is in line with the observation that last quarter was a temporary dip; testimony that the fundamentals of the economy remain strong. The positive sentiment is helped by delayed but good monsoons, controlled inflation, positive economic outlook and onset of the festive season," said Prasun Basu, President-South Asia, Nielsen." In fact, the FMCG market shows a similar pattern of bounce back in the third quarter, following a muted second quarter,” he added.
Established in 2005, the Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index is fielded quarterly in 63 countries to measure the perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances, immediate spending intentions and related economic issues of real consumers around the world. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.
JOB PROSPECTS AND PERSONAL FINANCES
Sentiment levels on personal finances have gone up by six percentage points to 84% this quarter (78% in Q2 2016). Over two in five (81%) respondents indicate optimism over job prospects, up by two percentage points from last quarter (78% in Q2 2016).
In line with overall optimism, recessionary sentiment is lower by four percentage points when compared to the same quarter last year (50% now, versus 54% in Q3 2015).
Job security (17%) continues to be the top ‘biggest concern’. This quarter ‘terrorism’ follows as the biggest concern among 10% of the respondents - up five points from last quarter (5% in Q2 2016).
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING & SAVINGS
68% urban Indians indicate it’s a good time to buy things they want and need over the next 12 months. Putting into savings (66%), spending on holidays and vacations (56%), purchase of new technology products (52%) and new clothes (48%) have been highlighted as avenues for utilizing spare cash.
These echo trends from the same quarter last year, where urban respondents prioritised savings (70%), new technology products (56%), holidays and vacations (56%) and new clothes (50%).
There is an uptick in saving via shares of stocks and mutual funds over the same quarter in the last two years. This year, 44% of the respondents cited preference for this avenue of saving, a twelve percentage point rise from Q3 2014 (32%).
Over four in five respondents (83%) have indicated they have changed their spending to save on household expenses. This is higher than the first quarter of the year (79% in Q1 2016), though at similar levels as Q2 2016 (82%).
“The rise in confidence is supported by the Indian consumers’ view of improved job prospects and state of personal finances. They are also cautious on recession due to global cues, though more positive from the last year. Another trend that we are witnessing is the increasing focus on changing household expenditure over the last two quarters" Basu said.
Global consumer confidence increased one point from the second quarter to a score of 99. Confidence gains were seen throughout most measured markets in Asia-Pacific, Latin America and Europe. Meanwhile, confidence decreased in four of six Africa/Middle East markets and in one of two North American markets. Five of the world’s top 10 economies posted optimistic scores of 100 or higher: U.S. (106), China (106), U.K. (106), Germany (100) and India (133).
ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND SPENDING INTENTIONS
The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions was conducted Aug. 10–Sept. 2, 2016.The findings in this survey are based on an online methodology in 63 countries. While an online survey methodology allows for tremendous scale and global reach, it provides a perspective only on the habits of existing internet users, not total populations. In developing markets where online penetration is still growing, audiences may be younger and more affluent than the general population of that country. Three sub-Saharan African countries (Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria) utilize a mobile survey methodology and are not included in the global or Middle East/Africa averages discussed throughout this report. In addition, survey responses are based on claimed behavior, rather than actual metered data. Cultural differences in reporting sentiment are likely factors in the measurement of economic outlook across countries. The reported results do not attempt to control or correct for these differences; therefore, caution should be exercised when comparing across countries and regions, particularly across regional boundaries.
Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global performance management company that provides a comprehensive understanding of what consumers Watch and Buy. The Company’s Watch segment provides media and advertising clients with Nielsen Total Audience measurement services across all devices where content—video, audio and text—is consumed. The Buy segment offers consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retailers the industry's only global view of retail performance measurement. By integrating information from its Watch and Buy segments and other data sources, Nielsen provides its clients with both world-class measurement as well as analytics that help improve performance. Nielsen, an S&P 500 company, has operations in over 100 countries that cover more than 90% of the world's population. For more information, visit www.nielsen.com/in
Tarini Mathur Kaul, [email protected], +91 124 6629629