Confidence rose in Europe to an index score of 79, its highest level in five years
North American confidence remained optimistic at 101, but declined five points from the first quarter
Asia-Pacific confidence held steady at 107, the highest level of all regions
New York, NY – July 27, 2015 – Global Consumer Confidence stayed relatively consistent for more than a year, declining one index point in the second quarter to a score of 96, according to the Nielsen’s Consumer Confidence Index Report released today. The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions among more than 30,000 respondents with Internet access in 60 countries. The global survey was fielded May 11-29, 2015, during a time when news of the Greek debt crisis was developing.
"Contrasts within and across markets continue to be a dominant feature of the global economy,” said Louise Keely, senior vice president, Nielsen, and president, The Demand Institute. “Consumer confidence in Eurozone markets has been relatively stable, with the notable exception of Greece. While quantitative easing is largely viewed as doing as intended, Europe is now moving through the Greek debt crisis. A relatively strong starting point for confidence will support consumer spending as the crisis unfolds.”
Despite the recent Eurozone economic uncertainty, consumer confidence grew throughout the European region in the second quarter, as 21 of 32 markets (65%) were more optimistic than at the start of the year. Confidence in Germany, the region’s largest economy, declined three index points to 97—the first decline in a year. In the U.K., confidence increased two points to 99—the sixth consecutive quarter of increases. Regionally, confidence increased most in the Ukraine (48), rising seven index points from the first quarter, but still leaving the country far below 100, the equilibrium point of pessimism/optimism.
“In the U.K., wage inflation is starting to outstrip price inflation for the first time in years, inflation and mortgage rates are at historically low levels and unemployment is falling steadily, which all combine for a more positive consumer outlook,” said Steve Smith, market leader, Nielsen U.K. and Ireland.
Confidence in Greece, however, declined by 12 index points to a score of 53—the largest quarterly decrease of the 60 countries in the survey. Confidence also declined by four points in both Ireland (88) and Italy (53).
Consumer confidence declined in six of seven Latin American markets measured in the second quarter, with Brazil (81) reporting the steepest drop of seven index points from the first quarter. The decline represents the third consecutive quarter of declines for the region’s largest economy, and the score is the lowest Nielsen has ever recorded (the Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index was established in 2005).
In Brazil, sentiment for the three economic indicators hit new lows, as future job prospects declined four percentage points to 23%, personal finances sentiment decreased four percentage points to 56%, and immediate spending intentions declined nine percentage points to 32%. Nearly all Brazilian respondents believe they are in recession, as the sentiment increased five percentage points to 90% from the first quarter.
Peru’s index (95) declined four points, followed by declines of three points each in Chile (84) and Venezuela (62). Consumer confidence in Mexico (84) and Colombia (93) declined two and one point, respectively, from the first quarter. Argentina was the only country measured in the region with a confidence boost, rising six points to 81 in the second quarter.
U.S. consumer confidence decreased six index points in the second quarter to a score of 101, but remained at an above-the-baseline optimistic level. “Confidence in the U.S. remains at elevated levels,” said James Russo, senior vice president, Nielsen Global Consumer Insights. “However, it’s an uneven recovery, as more than half of Americans still feel the effects of the recession and nearly 40% are still living paycheck to paycheck.”
Consumer confidence in Canada, however, increased two points to 98, after declining six points in the first quarter. Immediate spending intentions increased four percentage points in the second quarter to 41%, reversing the decline from the first quarter.
Reversing the performance at the start of the year, consumer confidence in the Asia-Pacific region improved in only four countries in the second quarter, while it declined in nine others. The Philippines showed the biggest quarterly confidence increase of seven index points, rising to a score of 122—the country’s highest level on record. Confidence also increased one point each in India (131), China (107) and Japan (83) from the first quarter.
“In China, consumers’ desire to spend is growing, especially in the lower-tier cities and in the rural parts of the country,” said Yan Xuan, president, Nielsen Greater China. “Higher income levels and growing e-commerce penetration in these areas represent important steps for increasing domestic consumption. The East China region is leading the country’s economic transformation with the highest confidence and spending intention levels and where online, offline, traditional and specialty channels are converging and driving upgraded product choices.”
Consumer confidence decreased in three of five countries measured in the Middle East/Africa region and held steady in two in the second quarter. At 108, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had the highest index in the region, but it decreased seven points from the first quarter—the biggest quarterly decline in six years. Confidence declined five points in Egypt to 85 and two points in Saudi Arabia to 105. Confidence levels in Pakistan (102) and South Africa (87) were unchanged from the first quarter.
Recessionary sentiment increased in four of five Middle East/Africa markets: Egypt and South Africa each increased three percentage points to 82% and 73%, respectively, and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates increased two percentage point to 45% and 41%, respectively.
Consumer confidence increased eight index points in Kenya (112) and three points in Nigeria (132) in the second quarter. Conversely, confidence decreased five points in Ghana (94), the second consecutive quarter of declines. The outlook for jobs increased significantly in Nigeria and Kenya, rising 11 and eight percentage points, respectively, from the first quarter. Eighty-five percent of Nigerian respondents and 67% of Kenya respondents believe the state of their personal finances are good/excellent, up two and three percentage points, respectively. Conversely, sentiment for all three indicators declined in Ghana.
The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions was conducted May11-29, 2015 and polled more than 30,000 online consumers in 60 countries throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa and North America. The sample has quotas based on age and sex for each country based on its Internet users and is weighted to be representative of Internet consumers. It has a margin of error of ±0.6%. This Nielsen survey is based only on the behavior of respondents with online access. Internet penetration rates vary by country. Nielsen uses a minimum reporting standard of 60% Internet penetration or an online population of 10 million for survey inclusion. The China Consumer Confidence Index is compiled from a separate mixed methodology survey among 3,500 respondents in China. The sub-Saharan African countries in this study are compiled from a separate mobile methodology survey among 1,600 respondents in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria. The Nielsen Global Survey, which includes the Global Consumer Confidence Index, was established in 2005.
Nielsen N.V. (NYSE: NLSN) is a global performance management company that provides a comprehensive understanding of what consumers Watch and Buy. Nielsen’s Watch segment provides media and advertising clients with Total Audience measurement services across all devices where content—video, audio and text—is consumed. The Buy segment offers consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retailers the industry’s only global view of retail performance measurement. By integrating information from its Watch and Buy segments and other data sources, Nielsen provides its clients with both world-class measurement as well as analytics that help improve performance. Nielsen, an S&P 500 company, has operations in over 100 countries that cover more than 90% of the world’s population. For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.
Andrew McCaskill, 347.331.5725, [email protected]