According to the latest Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions Survey, 62 percent of global respondents said they were in a recession—an increase from 57 percent the previous quarter, and a return to results from a year ago (Q3 2011). Half (49%) of recessionary-minded consumers believed the recession would live on for another year. More than three-fourths of North Americans (77%) remained mired in a declining economic mindset, but the latest results reported an eleven-percentage-point improvement over last year’s 88-percent results.
More respondents in Europe, Latin America and Asia-Pacific believed their region had fallen back into a recession compared to both last year and last quarter. The number of Europeans who believed they were in a recession jumped from 71 percent in Q2, to 75 percent in Q3. Recessionary sentiment also increased seven percentage points in Asia-Pacific, to 52 percent, and four percentage points in Latin America, to 53 percent. The Middle East/Africa region reported the only recessionary mindset decline, dropping five percentage points in Q3, to 72 percent.
Sixty-one percent of recessionary-minded Europeans did not believe the recession would end in the next 12 months, showing no change from the previous quarter. In North America, 58 percent did not have confidence the recession would be over in the year, an increase from 56 percent in Q2. Forty-one percent of Asia-Pacific respondents, and 37 percent of both Middle East/Africa and Latin American respondents, expected the recession to live on for another year.
“Europe is and will remain the epicenter of global growth concerns over the next several quarters, with the major European economies currently in or at the brink of recession,” said Dr. Venkatesh Bala, chief economist at The Cambridge Group, a part of Nielsen.
“In the U.S., the major risk to the ongoing recovery is the so-called “fiscal cliff” beginning January 2013, when the expiration of tax cuts, along with automatic reductions in government spending, could precipitate a second recession unless U.S. lawmakers act in the interim. China remains a relative bright spot despite slowing growth there, with the possibility that rising demand from domestic sources could eventually help counteract slowing exports. We expect considerable uncertainty as these trends start to come into focus for the balance of this year.”
For more detail and insight, download Nielsen’s Q3 2012 Consumer Confidence Report.