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US, China, Great Britain, Japan and France Lead Gracenote Virtual Medal Table forecast for 2024 Paris Olympic Games

9 minute read | January 2024

On January 26, 2024, exactly six months ahead of the Paris Olympics opening ceremony, Nielsen’s Gracenote released its latest Virtual Medal Table (VMT) forecast for the 2024 Games. Considering available results data from key global and continental competitions since the 2021 Summer Games, Gracenote has projected gold, silver and bronze medal counts for participating countries and athletes at the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad. This forecast is updated monthly between now and the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympic Games.

Almost all Russian and Belarussian competitors have been absent from international
competitions since February 2022. Any who take part in Paris 2024 without results in this period cannot be predicted accurately.

Snapshot

Gracenote’s VMT forecast projects the United States will win the most medals overall at Paris 2024. If Team USA meets this expectation, it would mark the team’s eighth successive placement at the top of the final Summer Games medal table.

China is projected to finish second on total medals but should challenge the United States for
first place on gold medals. The 85 medals currently forecast for China would be just four fewer than the country’s total in Tokyo two years ago.

Great Britain is expected to produce a similar performance to the last Olympics with the Gracenote VMT forecasting the same number of medals as in Tokyo (64). Gold medals could
be significantly down though as the British team is projected to win 17 golds in Paris.

Japan is also forecasted to produce a similar medal winning performance as last time, when the country hosted the Olympics. The latest Gracenote projection gives Japan 56 medals, two fewer than in Tokyo. However, Japan’s gold medal count is expected to suffer a sharp drop, from 27 to 17.

Host nation France should sharply increase its overall medal haul in comparison to the 33 total medals won in Tokyo. The Virtual Medal Table puts France in third place on gold medals, behind the United States and China, and its forecast total of 26 gold medals would be not far
short of France’s total number of medals at the last Olympics.

Russian and Belarussian athletes

With competitors from Russia and Belarus being banned from international competition in almost all Olympic sports since February 2022, it is not possible to assess potential performance accurately for those participating as Individual Neutral Athletes at Paris 2024 unless they have been competing more or less normally like, for example, the tennis players from the two countries. 

The top-five medal winning countries

United States

(Paris 2024 projection: 129 medals, Tokyo 2020: 113)

The US is expected to once again top the Summer Games Virtual Medal Table in Paris. The current Gracenote projection of 129 medals is 16 more than the total claimed by Team USA in 2021. The United States team has medals projected in 27 different sports in the Virtual Medal Table, two sports fewer than the country’s own Olympic record of 29 which was set in Tokyo. Athletics and swimming are still the key to success though with more than half of US medals projected to be won in those two sports.

China

(Paris 2024: 85, Tokyo 2020: 89)

At the Tokyo Olympics, China recovered from its total of 70 medals at the Rio Olympics, its lowest since 2004. Current Gracenote projections from the results which Chinese athletes are recording suggests that China will produce a similar performance to three years ago. Diving, shooting, swimming, weightlifting, table tennis and artistic gymnastics are China’s key medal-winning sports but 21 sports have a top-three Chinese competitor according to the VMT. China’s projected gold medal total of 35 means that it is a threat to the United States’ position as the winner of most golds in Paris.

Great Britain

(Paris 2024: 64, Tokyo 2020: 64)

The Gracenote Virtual Medal Table for Paris 2024 suggests that Great Britain can sustain its winning performance of 60 or more medals for a fourth successive Olympic Summer Games. British success over the past three Olympic Games has been built on having medal winners in at least 20 sports and the current VMT forecast suggests that this is set to continue. Prior to the 2012 Olympic Games, Great Britain won medals in at least 20 sports only in London in 1908, which was a very different Olympic era. 

Japan

(Paris 2024: 56, Tokyo 2020: 58)

After its record-breaking Olympics in Tokyo, Japan is expected to come close to that performance in terms of total medals. Gracenote’s latest Virtual Medal Table has the Japanese team winning two fewer medals than two years ago. However, the number of gold medals likely to be won by Japan is expected to be close to being halved, from 27 to 17. Medals are forecast in 21 different sports, equaling Japan’s record from Tokyo 2020.

France

(Paris 2024: 53, Tokyo 2020: 33)

The current forecast projects that host nation France will increase its medal total significantly and nearly triple its number of gold medals in comparison to the Tokyo Olympics. Summer Olympic success for France has been achieved in 15 to 19 different sports at each Olympics this century but medals are now projected in 22 different sports, a new French record. At the Paris 2024 Games, France should be expected to have its best Olympic Games since 1900.

Virtual Medal Table 1-10

NOCCountryGoldSilverBronzeTotal
United States374646129
China35282285
Great Britain17222564
Japan17152456
France26161153
Australia15171648
Italy13122247
Germany10141539
Netherlands1691035
Korea Republic761023

Countries Ranked 6 to 10 on the Virtual Medal Table

Australia

(Paris 2024: 48 medals, Tokyo 2020: 46)

After the disappointing Olympics of 2012 and 2016, Australia will improve again on its 2021 performance in a year’s time with over 40 medals for the sixth time in the last eight Olympics. Achieving this will rely on the success of the swimming team. The 20 medals forecast by Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table is broadly in line with the three best Olympic performances by Australia’s swimmers – 2008 (20 medals), 2021 (20) and 2000 (18). If the projected 48 medals are achieved, it would be Australia’s best performance for 20 years.

Italy

(Paris 2024 projection: 47, Tokyo 2020: 40)

Italy had its best ever Olympics in Tokyo but Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table projects an even better performance at Paris 2024. Buoyed by a potential best ever performance in the pool, Italy is forecast to win a record 47 medals across 19 different sports, four more than in Tokyo. Italy may also get close to challenging its 40-year-old best gold medal total of 14, set at the Los Angeles Olympics in 1984. The VMT projects Italy to win the eighth most gold medals, behind the United States, China, France, Great Britain, Japan, Netherlands and Australia.

Germany

 (Paris 2024: 39, Tokyo 2020: 37)

Germany’s medal total has declined at six of the seven Summer Olympics since reunification, with only London 2012 providing respite. Paris 2024 looks like reversing that trend with Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table projecting 39 medals, two more than in Tokyo. The German team is forecast to win medals in 20 sports, the third lowest since reunification, after London 2012 and Tokyo 2020. Germany no longer dominates any particular sport and no more than four medals for the German team are forecast by the VMT in a single sport. 

Netherlands

(Paris 2024: 35, Tokyo 2020: 36)

Two years after its best Summer Olympics in Tokyo, the Dutch team is forecast to produce a similar performance in Paris next year. At four of the last six Olympic Games, the Netherlands has won medals in 11 to 13 sports and the 2024 Summer Games look like being a similar story. However, success this year time will primarily depend on three sports; rowing, cycling – track and athletics.

Korea Republic

(Paris 2024: 23, Tokyo 2020: 20))

Tokyo 2020 was a disappointing Olympics for the Republic of Korea. The 20 medals including six golds were both the lowest totals for the country since it won 19 and six respectively at the Los Angeles Olympics of 1984. The prospects for Paris 2024 look better with Korean competitors forecast to win 23 medals, including seven golds. This will not take Korea back to their medal winning heights of 2004 to 2012 but it will be a step in the right direction.

Virtual Medal Table 11-20

NOCCountryGoldSilverBronzeTotal
Canada68923
Spain66921
Brazil93719
Hungary311519
Ukraine261018
Turkiye55414
Uzbekistan33713
Serbia52512
Ethiopia35412
Poland54211

Virtual Medal Table 21-30

NOCCountryGoldSilverBronzeTotal
Belgium36211
Kenya34411
Denmark43310
Georgia34310
Switzerland12710
Iran4239
New Zealand4239
Jamaica3339
Czech Republic3249
Kazakhstan2169

About Gracenote Virtual Medal Table

The Gracenote Virtual Medal Table is a statistical model based on individual and team results in previous Olympics Games, World Championships and World Cups to forecast the most likely gold, silver and bronze medal winners by country. This information is presented in simple to understand predictions and seamless data feeds that enable broadcasters, media publishers and pay TV operators to deliver unique Olympic-focused stories across Web, mobile and broadcast properties. 

About Gracenote

Gracenote is the content solutions business unit of Nielsen providing entertainment metadata, content IDs and related offerings to the world’s leading creators, distributors and platforms. Gracenote technology enables advanced content navigation and discovery capabilities ensuring consumers can easily connect to the music, TV shows, movies and sports they love while delivering powerful content analytics making complex business decisions simpler.

About Nielsen

Nielsen shapes the world’s media and content as a global leader in audience measurement, data and analytics. Through our understanding of people and their behaviors across all channels and platforms, we empower our clients with independent and actionable intelligence so they can connect and engage with their audiences—now and into the future. Nielsen operates around the world in more than 55 countries. Learn more at www.nielsen.com and connect with us on social media (Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook and Instagram).